Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Two sided trade in the S&P500 with buyers supporting when prices approached 1290 support which caused shorts to cover to end the session little changed, ditto for the Nasdaq 100 as buyers waited at 2500 to chase prices higher and if this trading action continues could be a sign of a pending oversold bounce especially if the indices can close over 1315 and 2540 respectively. 10yr treasuries closed off the best levels but still remain within reach of new contract highs supported at 133-16 with the Dollar closing over 82.000 and if can hold 82.09 can build on gains and target 84.00. Gold made another run at the Dec. lows but buyers were waiting again as prices closed well off the worse levels while falling short of 1570 for now it looks like downside might be limited from here whereas Silver held 27.000 keeping its upside target of 28.16 within reach. Crude slips again trading under 90.00 with buyers supporting the low which could be a sign of an impending bounce as prices approach support and Natural gas continues its upside ways as buyers supporting the low keeping 2.800 within reach. Buyers were waiting when Hogs traded 84.25 indicating a possible bottom if this level holds with near-term resistance seen at 86.85. Soybean meal bounced off 400.00 support checking losses with upside resistance seen at 420 while Soybeans continued lower heading for 1342 its near term target with resistance seen at 1403. Corn ended the session higher but unable to close over 608 still looking lower long term and Wheat fell back under its 200dma but should be supported around 660. More selling in the softs takes Coffee and Sugar to new contract lows with sellers finally having their way as buyers give up, Cocoa dropped again heading toward 2,050 where buyers had supported in the past although the outlook isn't encouraging. Orange Juice was turned away from 110.00 although buyers did support around 100.00 again so that could be something to watch and Cotton continues to plumb new contract lows likely heading for 60.00 unless someone decides to buy and one day will be a great buy but probably not today.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

Sure looks that way with several markets failing at previously mentioned levels with less then impressive buying interest on the rebound. S&P500 rallied right into but failed at 1324 falling back to the open with a similar performance with the Nasdaq 100 capped at 2556 only to reverse lower going into the close. 10yr Treasuries initially fell through 133-13 support only to recovery to close at that level which looks like there is more upside with Bonds testing support at 146-23 but getting a close over ending at 147-00.The Dollar flew off the 81.14 support level after it held on a couple of tests sending the greenback to session highs putting 82.00 within reach it once again. Gold sold off after being turned away from 1600 again trading back under 1573 albeit not by much but unless new buyers show up, prices now looking lower. Silver tried to advance but ran into problems approaching 29.000 again to head lower with more downside possible. Crude slipped again reversing yesterday's gains as sellers didn't wait for prices to reach 94.00 before getting back in on the short side with near term support seen at 89.22 whereas Natural gas managed a gain after holding 2.575 closing back over 2.610 with next target still 2.800. Profit-taking continues in Hogs failing to hold 86.50 so have to wait and see if the buyers support if prices trade closer to 84.000. Volatility continues in the grain with Corn the chosen one to drop over 5 percent blowing through near term support like it wasn't there, a hallmark of fund selling whereas Wheat wasn't immune to profit taking either although managed to hold its 200dma at 683 and Soybeans pulled back from 1420 trading down to 1380 again, last time they bounced higher, what about this time? Coffee tried to rally but this time turned away from 177.50 as it looks like sellers are starting to be more aggressive at these levels as buyers consider waiting for lower prices while Sugar fell under 20.00 after an unsuccessful upside attempt at 20.40 although prices did close off the worse levels. Cocoa broke 2,200 looking for token support at 2,150 after buyers gave up trying to push through formidable resistance and Orange Juice advances on likely short covering without much behind the move as buyers lost interest as prices approached 112.00. Limit down move in Cotton as prices failed at 78.00 giving speculators more reason to sell but buyers little reason to buy with the path of least resistance lower.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

Equities started the day on a strong note from short-covering inspired gains as support held resulting in outside days in both S&P500 and Nasdaq100 possibly setting the stage for more gains if ES can close over 1324 and 2557 for NQ however both are still within their respective downtrends. 10yr Treasuries pulled back just a little successfully testing 133-11 support which by itself is amazing given the gains in the indices with Bonds no where near its 146-16 support as sellers remain hesitant to aggressively sell even at these elevated levels. The Dollar reversed lower for the second session getting close to its first downside target 80.950 although it could drop to 80.400 before its said and done. Small gain in Gold as prices consolidate after recent short-covering with 1600 and 1615 upside resistance levels with support seen at 1576 and Silver pulled back a little but closed off the worse levels of the session not quite closing over 28.460. Mirror image in Crude from last session as prices reversed higher as buyers found value and shorts covered but prices need to close over 94.63 to really change the short-term direction and sellers finally caught up with Natural gas dropping prices more then 4 percent not unexpected given recent movement with support seen at 2.600 a challenge of will test buyer's resolve. Hogs pulled back on the first real bout of profit-taking with support seen at 86.60 offering a potential buy on a pull back opportunity if prices hold as near term upside objective remains 90.00. In the grains, Corn tried but unable to advance beyond 640 as prices reversed lower with 626 the price to watch if buyers support and Wheat was all over the place on an almost 6 percent intra-day move to end at 704 a six month high as buyers and sellers figure out where to take prices although buyers managed a close over 700 which has capped prices over the past several months with Soybeans turned away from 1420 looks more like profit-taking as sellers lack commitment at this time. Coffee was ground lower to 175.15 as prices just couldn't push over resistance at 181.00 again keeping prices contained within the almost two month long 11+ cent trading range whereas Sugar reversed lower unable to hold 20.50 with support still seen at 20.00. Cocoa melted a little turned away from 2,269 a level proving to be noteworthy resistance although looks like it could move higher if prices stay away from 2,200 while Orange Juice tried to advance but buyers lost interest at 110.00 with near term resistance at 113.20 and Cotton tries to hold over 76.00 attempting to advance at one point but turned away from 79.30 to end the session with a fractional loss.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended