Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended Friday at 8,611 - down 2.99%. The Hang Seng ended Friday at 18,952 - down 1.30%. European exchanges were also lower on Friday. The FTSE 100 ended Friday at 5,267 - down 1.33%. The DAX ended Friday at 6,271 - down 0.60%. The CAC 40 ended Friday at 3,008 - down 0.13%. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury traded down to 1.692, approaching the September 23, 2011 low yield at 1.671. Gold traded as high as $1597.5 the Troy ounce to $1597.5 after holding my monthly value level at $1525.8 and taking out my annual pivot at $1575.8. Crude oil traded down to $90.93 per barrel well below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.24. The euro versus the dollar traded as low as 1.2646.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with a monthly pivot at 1.734, the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671 and weekly risky level at 1.635.
2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with an annual pivot at $1575.8, a weekly pivot at $1596.6, and semiannual risky level at $1635.8. For Crude oil I show a weekly pivot at $91.62 with the 200-day SMA at $96.24.
3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.2842 and 1.2980.
4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,692 and 12,794 with my annual value level at 12,312 and the 200-day at 12,199. The S&P 500 is below weekly, quarterly and annual pivots at 1329.9, 1337.7 and 1363.2 with the 200-day at 1278.2. The NASDAQ is below my quarterly pivot at 2911 with the 200-day at 2742, and my annual value level at 2698. Dow Transports is down 2.9% YTD and closed Friday below its 200-day at 4931 with my semiannual value level at 4407 and weekly risky level at 5083. The Russell 2000 closed Friday below its 200-day at 753.20 with a semiannual value level at 572.90, and weekly risky level at 759.03. Another negative is that Transports and Small Caps, the leaders in 2011, are the first to fall below 200-day SMAs.
5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 77.6% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.80%. Eleven sectors are undervalued with five overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 25.7% UV, Basic Materials - 22.4% UV, Oils-Energy - 16.0% UV, Business Services - 12.0% UV, and Consumer Discretionary - 11.3%.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 8,611 - down 2.99% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 18,952 - down 1.30% on the day. European exchanges opened lower on Friday after a weak day on Thursday. The FTSE 100 ended Thursday at 5,338 - down 1.24%. The DAX ended Thursday at 6,309 - down 1.18%. The CAC 40 ended Thursday at 3,012 - down 1.20%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined to a new year to date low at 1.689 with the September 23rd record low yield at 1.671 after my monthly value level at $1525.8 held. Gold rebounded above my annual pivot at $1575.8 to $1589.5 this morning. In my Wednesday TheStreet.com story, I recommended buying gold for a short-term trade. Crude oil traded as low as $91.60 per barrel this morning well below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.24. The euro versus the dollar traded down to 1.2646 this morning well below my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with a monthly pivot at 1.734, the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671 and quarterly risky level at 1.407.
2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with an annual pivot at $1575.8 and semiannual risky level at $1635.8. For Crude oil my semiannual value level is $79.83 with the 200-day SMA at $96.24.
3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.
4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is below my quarterly pivot at 12,794 with my annual value level at 12,312. The S&P 500 is below quarterly and annual pivots at 1337.7 and 1363.2. The NASDAQ is below my quarterly pivot at 2911 with my annual value level at 2698. Dow Transports is down 1.6% YTD with my semiannual value level at 4407 and monthly risky level at 5385. The Russell 2000 has a semiannual value level at 572.90 with a monthly risky level at 813.56. It appears that my prediction that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will not return to their lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 set on May 2, 2011 in 2012 is on the money.
5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 76.3% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.80%. Ten sectors are undervalued with six overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 25.0% UV, Basic Materials - 21.9% UV, Oils-Energy - 13.1% UV, Business Services - 11.1% UV, and Consumer Discretionary - 10.8%.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 8,877 - up 0.86% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 19,201 - down 0.31% on the day. European exchanges are lower this morning after ending Wednesday mixed. The FTSE 100 ended Wednesday at 5,405 - down 0.60%. The DAX ended Wednesday at 6,384 - down 0.26%. The CAC 40 ended Wednesday at 3,049 - up 0.31%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined to another YTD low at 1.747 percent on Wednesday versus the cycle low at 1.671 set on September 23, 2011. Gold traded down to a new year to date low of $1526.7 the Troy ounce on Wednesday versus my monthly value level at $1525.8. Crude oil traded down to $91.81 per barrel on Wednesday. The euro versus the dollar traded down to 1.2684. The decline in yields is overdone on its daily chart. Gold and Crude oil are oversold. The euro is oversold. All major averages are oversold.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with monthly and weekly risky levels at 1.734 and 1.726. Declining yields is overdone.
2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with annual pivot at $1575.8 and weekly risky level at $1612.6. The "Death Cross" that signaled this down side began on April 17th. For Crude oil my semiannual value level is $79.83 with a weekly pivot at $95.76, and the 200-day SMA at $96.24. Both gold & crude are oversold.
3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with my semiannual pivot at 1.2980. The euro is oversold on its daily chart.
4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is below my quarterly and weekly pivots at 12,794 and 12,798 with my annual value level at 12,312. The S&P 500 is below quarterly and annual pivots at 1337.7 and 1363.2. The NASDAQ is below my quarterly pivot at 2911 with my annual value level at 2698. Dow Transports stayed above my weekly value level at 5085. The Russell 2000 is below my weekly pivot at 786.76. My prediction remains that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will not return to their lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 set on May 2, 2011 in 2012. All have oversold daily charts.
5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 72.0% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.90%. Nine sectors are undervalued with 11 overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 22.5% UV, Basic Materials - 21.6% UV. Oils-Energy - 13.1% UV.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D