Bought mostly in the last 2 days of last week. 7.60 on ACI and 11.34 on ANR. You can follow the articles, I didn't get positive on coal except very recently (I was calling for a panic before, check my other article from Friday). I also trade around the positions a lot.
When the first switch happened, natural gas prices were as high as $3.50-$3.75, however, there are two sides to that coin - the other side is the coal prices, and those went down - that's why I believe the prices for switchback are lower now.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The thesis is not really based on exports, though those could help.
The bottom might yet fail, not only because the summer might be mild, but also because coal+nat gas might still be excessive, but there's also a chance for it to work given the market bounce which is already happening and which was part of the reason for me to be positive at this point.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Well, it might be nice (3P) but it was there all along, so clinging to it now is somewhat strange and represents a changing thesis. A changing thesis on a very expensive stock. Not a good combination.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
The market is believing that a good deal of those expenses are, indeed, tied to investment - or are optional in that AMZN can do away with them and still have a business.
However, the market has already shown that the thesis keeps changing, for instance the latest thesis is that 3P is the thing, it's where all the money is coming from, etc. Not just any 3P, but the 3P that AMZN does not fulfill (see the Credit Suisse research).
Now, this is funny, because the former theory was that AMZN was having trouble with the earnings because of heavy investments in fulfillment, and the new theory is that AMZN is the sheet because of something that doesn't even require fulfillment.
In the end what we'll see is that AMZN is a giant mail order house with no cost advantage over regular retailers, getting revenues by competing on price and seeing its only advantage going away - not collecting sales taxes.
There's a reason why large generic mail order catalogs went under...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Jeremy, the problem isn't quite the fact that you're capitalizing it, as much as you then treating its absence (since it was capitalized) as cash flow. You're basically saying that those expenses don't really exist:
"Gross income at Amazon, based on analyst estimates for 2012 EBITDA and the impact of capitalized expense add-backs is $7.5 billion."
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
But still, AMZN is probably capitalizing part of its R&D, after all it IS capitalizing part of the work in its websites.
It's just that marketing is overwhelmingly sales commissions and you sure can't capitalize those.
And tech is mostly keeping AWS's lights on, can't capitalize those either.
Under any circumstance, and if you were in possession of all the detail in those two items, you'd end up capitalizing just a small fraction of their value, not $7.5 billion, so this mixes up all the conclusions you draw up from those $7.5 billion.
It's ugly as far as I know. But yes, didn't factor it - there's a limit on how much detail one can include and still do something else besides looking at a particular sector.
Yes, for sure there will still be doubts here, and the switchback is a continuous process that happens at many prices.
But regarding there being wells waiting to come online, one shoud also remember that even conventional wells deplete fast, so all the capacity that's already online is continuously losing production, and a lot of wells have to come online just to keep it up. Given how fast shale depletes, I still expect production to end up falling during 2013 at the lastest, but possibly already during 2012.
For the present purpose, and while polution or CO2 credits don't trade, relative pricing is what matters. The plants that run aren't choosen by politicians or environmentalists.
Duh, didn't you read that I did not want this to be negative, that I wasn't saying to sell or short, and indeed that I expect the market to bounce here and AAPL to bounce with it? I posted it like 3 times already in the comments.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The bottom might yet fail, not only because the summer might be mild, but also because coal+nat gas might still be excessive, but there's also a chance for it to work given the market bounce which is already happening and which was part of the reason for me to be positive at this point.
Verizon Threw Apple A Curveball [View article]
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
However, the market has already shown that the thesis keeps changing, for instance the latest thesis is that 3P is the thing, it's where all the money is coming from, etc. Not just any 3P, but the 3P that AMZN does not fulfill (see the Credit Suisse research).
Now, this is funny, because the former theory was that AMZN was having trouble with the earnings because of heavy investments in fulfillment, and the new theory is that AMZN is the sheet because of something that doesn't even require fulfillment.
In the end what we'll see is that AMZN is a giant mail order house with no cost advantage over regular retailers, getting revenues by competing on price and seeing its only advantage going away - not collecting sales taxes.
There's a reason why large generic mail order catalogs went under...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
There's a long distance from doing that, to ending up capitalizing expenses that we know fully well are expenses ...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Indeed, the only thing this reminds me is the Worldcom fraud.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
"Gross income at Amazon, based on analyst estimates for 2012 EBITDA and the impact of capitalized expense add-backs is $7.5 billion."
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
It's just that marketing is overwhelmingly sales commissions and you sure can't capitalize those.
And tech is mostly keeping AWS's lights on, can't capitalize those either.
Under any circumstance, and if you were in possession of all the detail in those two items, you'd end up capitalizing just a small fraction of their value, not $7.5 billion, so this mixes up all the conclusions you draw up from those $7.5 billion.
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
But regarding there being wells waiting to come online, one shoud also remember that even conventional wells deplete fast, so all the capacity that's already online is continuously losing production, and a lot of wells have to come online just to keep it up. Given how fast shale depletes, I still expect production to end up falling during 2013 at the lastest, but possibly already during 2012.
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
Verizon Threw Apple A Curveball [View article]